Friday, September 10, 2010
GOLD is weaken down
GVZ chart show strong support at 17 and GDM show turning down too. I expect the Gold price will weaken soon.
Wednesday, September 8, 2010
Why the VIX May Not Be Best Market Indicator Right Now
The following headline appeared this morning:
"Why the VIX May Not Be Best Market Indicator Right Now"
The article made the following comments:
1. The CBOE Volatility Index is often used to predict where markets are headed in coming weeks, but now may not be a good time to rely on Wall Street's so-called fear gauge for direction.
2. The open interest put-to-call ratio and average implied volatility gap between puts and calls on the VIX are showing opposing views.
3. These two numbers are usually in agreement but they are completely the opposite now, which is very unusual to see.
So ... how on earth can that "unusual, opposite relationship" mean that the VIX "May Not Be the Best Market Indicator Right Now"???
Why would anyone want you to ignore the VIX and accept that it may suddenly be meaningless?
Below is a 60 minute VIX chart that goes back to June of this year. I do NOT see anything unusual, other than the fact that the VIX has been in a trading range since July.
What is significant, is that the VIX closed at the bottom of its trading range last Friday, while our Oscillator was in overbought territory, and the RSI was sitting on a June/September support line.
* A normal move now would be for the VIX to move higher this morning and engage in a bounce off the current trading range's support.
So in our analysis, the short term VIX view is acting as a good indicator right now.
The confusion for other analyst may be coming from an opposite, longer term VIX possibility.
On a longer term chart (2+ year chart), the VIX has three possible downside support possibilities. It is entirely possible that the VIX could reverse and break the short term support line in the coming days and then move down to 19.83. (The VIX was at 21.31 on Friday's close.)
* 19.83 is the first caution point to watch if you are a VIX watcher. That is an older "double bottom" resistance area, and a "current double support line intersection".
If the VIX were to fall below 19.83, then 17.53 and 16.71 would be the next two resistance areas and both of these are where "gaps" would be closed. If reached, these resistance points are a places where you should tread very cautiously as the markets would be very vulnerable at these points. The odds for moving lower than these levels are very low.
So ... for now, on a shorter term basis, the VIX should bounce of its support and move higher.
From:http://www.stocktiming.com/Tuesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
Tuesday, September 7, 2010
Monday, September 6, 2010
Agri-Food Thoughts
Above, is plotted the days of consumption held in global reserves for the Big Four, corn, soybeans, wheat, and rice. They all fall into a range of 60-95 days. If no production of these grains occurred, in less than 60 days no corn would be available. In the case of rice, in less than 80 days none would be found.
Numbers in that chart do not portray a picture of overwhelming bounty. Such is the reason that global grain markets responded to the Russian announcement. At the same time, the world has really not yet come to know the impact of the floods on Pakistani rice production. That country is the number three exporter of rice.
FIND OUT MORE
Saturday, September 4, 2010
Obama Must Create 230,000 Jobs A Month Until The End Of His Second Term For Return To Breakeven - Charting The New "7 Year Itch" Normal
Under the weaker growth trajectory we are now penciling in:
•Private payrolls manage tepid monthly gains of just 25,000 through the end of 2010. As the growth recession fades in the second half of 2011, gains in private payroll employment should accelerate. We expect average monthly gains of 125,000 in the fourth quarter of 2011.
•Therefore, for most of 2010 and 2011, employment growth is not expected to keep up with the rise in the labor force, which means the unemployment rate heads north. We expect a steady increase to 10.1% by the second quarter with a slow fall slightly below 10.0% by the end of 2011.
So let's adjusted the chart using Bank of America's projections, which assumesa gradual increase in the unemployment rate to 10% by Q3 2010 and a decline since then. We chart these projections on the chart below. According to this adjusted case, the payroll number will never return to the December 2007 baseline for the duration of Obama's term, even if one assumes 200K job pick ups beginning in January 2012 and continuing every month thereafter (as we have done). In November 2016 we forecast an unemployment rate of 5.7% using these assumptions. They are presented visually below:
And just to demonstrate what the recession will look like assuming even this quite optimstic assumption, here is the famous post WW2 recession comparison chart adjusted for an expansion of the depression (let's not split hairs here) labor force, that started in December 2007: it is shaping up to be 7 years before the jobs lost finally are put back into the system. And that's for those optimistically inclined.
So before everyone gets all political on who has done a more bang up job of destroying the economy, perhaps both sides can explain how they each got the US to a point where even wildly optimstic projections assume that the length of the most recent economic slowdown will take 85 months to resolve (and, in all reality, far, far longer).
FIND OUT MORE
•Private payrolls manage tepid monthly gains of just 25,000 through the end of 2010. As the growth recession fades in the second half of 2011, gains in private payroll employment should accelerate. We expect average monthly gains of 125,000 in the fourth quarter of 2011.
•Therefore, for most of 2010 and 2011, employment growth is not expected to keep up with the rise in the labor force, which means the unemployment rate heads north. We expect a steady increase to 10.1% by the second quarter with a slow fall slightly below 10.0% by the end of 2011.
So let's adjusted the chart using Bank of America's projections, which assumesa gradual increase in the unemployment rate to 10% by Q3 2010 and a decline since then. We chart these projections on the chart below. According to this adjusted case, the payroll number will never return to the December 2007 baseline for the duration of Obama's term, even if one assumes 200K job pick ups beginning in January 2012 and continuing every month thereafter (as we have done). In November 2016 we forecast an unemployment rate of 5.7% using these assumptions. They are presented visually below:
And just to demonstrate what the recession will look like assuming even this quite optimstic assumption, here is the famous post WW2 recession comparison chart adjusted for an expansion of the depression (let's not split hairs here) labor force, that started in December 2007: it is shaping up to be 7 years before the jobs lost finally are put back into the system. And that's for those optimistically inclined.
So before everyone gets all political on who has done a more bang up job of destroying the economy, perhaps both sides can explain how they each got the US to a point where even wildly optimstic projections assume that the length of the most recent economic slowdown will take 85 months to resolve (and, in all reality, far, far longer).
FIND OUT MORE
Wednesday, September 1, 2010
Webbot predictions predictions about the economy, and U.S. and world events for the summer of 2010 and beyond . Here are some of the highlights of what they see coming:
* No warfare between Israel and Iran, at least not until November.
* Six very large earthquakes are yet to come during the rest of 2010.
* A major tipping point will occur between November 8th – 11th, 2010, followed by a 2-3 month release period. This tipping point appears to be US-centric, and could be a dramatic world-changing event like 9-11 that will have rippling after-effects. The collapse of the dollar might occur in November.
* From July 8th, 2010 onward, civil unrest will take place, possibly driven by food prices skyrocketing, and the devaluation of the dollar.
* A second depression, triggered by mass layoffs, bankruptcies, and the popping of the "derivatives bubble," will see people moving out of cities.
* After March 2011, the revolution wave will settle down into a period of reformation.
* A "data gap" has been found between early 2012 running through May 2013. One explanation is that "our civilization gets knocked back to a pre-electronic state," such as brought about by devastating solar activity.
* A new benign form of capitalism will emerge during 2017-2020.
* No warfare between Israel and Iran, at least not until November.
* Six very large earthquakes are yet to come during the rest of 2010.
* A major tipping point will occur between November 8th – 11th, 2010, followed by a 2-3 month release period. This tipping point appears to be US-centric, and could be a dramatic world-changing event like 9-11 that will have rippling after-effects. The collapse of the dollar might occur in November.
* From July 8th, 2010 onward, civil unrest will take place, possibly driven by food prices skyrocketing, and the devaluation of the dollar.
* A second depression, triggered by mass layoffs, bankruptcies, and the popping of the "derivatives bubble," will see people moving out of cities.
* After March 2011, the revolution wave will settle down into a period of reformation.
* A "data gap" has been found between early 2012 running through May 2013. One explanation is that "our civilization gets knocked back to a pre-electronic state," such as brought about by devastating solar activity.
* A new benign form of capitalism will emerge during 2017-2020.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)