Wednesday, June 30, 2010

VIX Cross above 200MA on hourly chart



I think this is a short term cross over as base on my forecast on Tuesday, June 22, 2010

Saturday, June 26, 2010

How Solar Flare really affect me?



In my understand, all the aeroplane, satellite and power plant in northern hemisphere is protected by a shield to prevent interferent. The Solar Storm will mainly impact the northern hemisphere. If the event really happen than it's a good time to "Sell on the rumor, buy on the news"

Thursday, June 24, 2010









VT Total World Stock ETF

Currently many trader bullish on short term market. I don't think so, because VIX rebound on 200MA, VT Total World Stock ETF also rebound on 200 MA and EUR/USD look like going no where.

Tuesday, June 22, 2010

BP oil spill gas bubble

Part 1 of 2

Part 2 of 2

Day to watch



Day to watch for big move on stock market. I'm expecting more down move from June 28 to July 02.

Monday, June 21, 2010

Is there enough Liquidity in the market?



Well, last week did give us an increase in market Liquidity by making a higher high.

That was a positive ... but there is still a lot more work to be done on the Liquidity issue. While improving Liquidity levels can be seen, they still remain in Contraction territory which is a high risk condition. In a way, this is saying that Wall Street is not highly confident about the economy as we move forward.

Yes, confidence is improving, but it still remains low. Investors are not afraid to "vote with their money" when they are very confident. Right now, they are voting very cautiously.

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Sunday, June 20, 2010

Technically Precious with Merv Burak



One thing to keep in mind, very often we see that the stocks react before gold itself reacts, either on the up side or the down side. We're talking reacting into a reversal of major trend not just a minor movement. If this holds up we should see a change in trend direction in the major stock Indices, such as the Merv's Gold & Silver 160 Index, before gold reverses. If you are watching the performance of gold as a guide towards your stock activities, you may be disappointed if the stocks do turn around weeks before gold does.

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Saturday, June 19, 2010

Bullish on GDM



As GDM still show sign of bullish.

GVZ & GLD

Click Image to enlarge



As GVZ broke above 200 moving average 3 time seen December 2009 also show a weakness on gold price. If GVZ reach 18 and below, it give us a good opportunity to sell gold.

Friday, June 18, 2010

Tuesday, June 15, 2010

School Administrator Earns Pension of Over $26 Million

Click to visit a bigger version


Here’s the latest vivid example of how far off course they’ve gotten in Illinois… the estimated pension liability for just the 100 top school administrators is now about $888 million. That’s right… nearly one billion dollars… or about $9 million per administrator.

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Monday, June 14, 2010

Australia deposits of uranium

Australia happens to sit on the world's largest known deposits of uranium with more reserves than the United States, Canada, Russia and Brazil combined. And with more than 900 new nuclear plants now being planned, the hunger for uranium is just beginning.

VIX cross below 29



VIX confirm cross below 29. Possibility the market will turn bullish until the World Cup end.

US finds mineral riches in Afghanistan

Americans discovered nearly $1 trillion in untapped mineral deposits in Afghanistan, including iron, copper, cobalt, gold and critical industrial metals like lithium, according to the report. The Times quoted a Pentagon memo as saying Afghanistan could become the "Saudi Arabia of lithium," a key raw material in the manufacture of batteries for laptops and cell phones.

So now we understand why USA Like Afghanistan and British like Falkland Island.

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Saturday, June 12, 2010

Unofficial Problem Bank List

Extremely quiet week for the Unofficial Problem Bank List as the OCC did not release its actions for May. No doubt that will happen next week.

Only three changes to report. There were two removals -- the failed Washington First International Bank ($521 million) and an action termination by the OCC against Mission Oaks National Bank ($187 million Ticker: MOKB).

The other change is an updated Prompt Corrective Action against Imperial Savings and Loan Association ($9.6 million).

The Unofficial Problem Bank List stands at 760 institutions with aggregate assets of $385 billion.

Click here for Bank List

Note: A special thanks to surferdude808 for tracking all the institutions and compiling this list (no one else is doing this).

Friday, June 11, 2010

Assassination Attempt On Silver Whistleblower?

Andrew Maguire & Adrian Douglas interview


Andrew Maguire & Adrian Douglas: Discuss What Could Be the Largest Fraud in History

Click to hear the Interview

Click for E-mail Exchange

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/King_World_News.html

EXTEND & PRETEND: A Guide to the Road Ahead



Hard assets such as physical gold and silver have traditionally been the ideal vehicle for an environment of high inflation coupled with a currency crisis. I fully expect governments will strip these assets from holders either directly or through predatory taxation, fees or other trading limitations. They will be classified somewhere in the four categories discussed above. Alternatively, if it is not done in this fashion it will be controlled through intervention similar to national currencies in the forex arena. I personally suspect it is already being controlled in some fashion based on the March 25th CFTC whistleblower testimony by Andrew Maguire. It is a matter of national security in a beggar-thy-neighbor environment since gold and silver are the only real money in a fiat based system. Protect yourself accordingly.

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Sucker's Rally

The early 1930 rally came after the market had fallen nearly 50% in the fall of 1929. The spring 1930 rally took the market up nearly 50% again, to a level that was only about 20% below the previous peak.

That rally, of course, was also the biggest sucker's rally in history. After the market peaked in April 1930, it crashed again, eventually ending up down 89% from the 1929 high and more than 80% from the 1930 high. The market did not reach the 1930 high again for another quarter of a century.

Tuesday, June 8, 2010

Goldman's P/E Ratio = 5.7

Wow, the trailing Price/Earnings Ratio for Goldman Sachs (GS) is 5.74.

For the year, Wall Street expects Goldman to earn $19.57 a year, then $20.57 in 2011.

At Goldman's current price, this year's earnings estimate represent 14.2%, and 14.9% for next year. The stock is just 7% above its book value.

I'm not saying that Goldman is a bargain but the market certainly doesn't have much faith in the bank's future earnings potential.

The Housing Non-Recovery

Fourteen percent of America's 56 million mortgages are already delinquent or in foreclosure. So if you multiply 56 million by 14%, that means that 7.8 million people right now are not paying their mortgages. 7.8 million homeowners have been delinquent for 30, 60 or 90 days...or are in foreclosure already. 91% of the people who are currently not paying are never going to get back to current, according to recent statistics. So that means that of 7.8 million people not paying their mortgage, 7.2 million are never going to get back. So that's a problem. 7.2 million homes. 7.2 million mortgages will go into foreclosure...eventually.



And the real story is even worse than the nearby chart suggests. Because of loan modification programs, the government, banks and servicers have dramatically slowed down the foreclosure process. The banks have been modifying everybody, slowing down the foreclosure pipeline and not taking properties onto their books.

So what this means is that the rate of NON-foreclosure on delinquent borrowers is climbing sharply. As the nearby chart illustrates, 24% of the people who have not made a mortgage payment during the last two years have still not been foreclosed on. That's how clogged the foreclosure pipeline is.


So what's going on? Well, there are a lot of modifications going on the past year. But modifications don't really work very well. It turns out that even when you cut someone's mortgage payment by 50% or more, half of them still default within 12 months. The re-default rate is astronomical...even when you cut the monthly payments dramatically.

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Is the Libor sending a message?



For whatever reason, it is unusual for the Libor to exhibit a triangular pattern, but that is what it has been showing since April 26th.

When looking at the chart, note the pattern and the arrows we posted. There seems to be some degree of correlation with the NYSE Composite index. Normally, this is not the case. Also, while the Libor is exhibiting a triangular pattern, the NYSE is showing a bit of a descending wedge pattern.

What is technically interesting about the Libor pattern, is that a triangular breakout is not too far away. This begs the question as to whether there is an important event around the corner?

Hungarian Crisis

Investors should also bear in mind that Hungary ran a trade surplus, which would help its efforts to pay down foreign debt. As it is not on the euro, Hungary can devalue its currency, which will help the competitiveness of its exporters.

Moreover, Mr Lele said the European Central Bank had presented a thorough response to the region's debt crisis in recent weeks.

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Do you think Government really like Gold


When country in recession, the government normally don't like Gold, because it will lock out liquidity flowing to the market. If no cash flowing to the market than you won't see recovery in the country.

If stock market really fall in the end of 2010. I think it is very possible the government will try very hard to bring down the gold price.

This is why I don't think Gold will shoot like a rocket and never return.

Monday, June 7, 2010

Oversold on the NYSE



Stock are Oversold on the NYSE and look likely for a Bounce or Rally.

Gold Thoughts



Our second chart, above, is of the ratio of US$Gold price to the quantity of U.S. dollars, M-2 NSA. Solid black line is the mean of that ratio for the period of time shown. Upper line, in green, is the mean plus two standard deviations. Based on the data in the chart, the probability of the ratio being above the green line is about 1 out of 6. Currently, $Gold, based on this measure, should trade lower.

In short, the price currently being placed on $Gold should not persist. Yes, the speculative traders now in control of the Gold market can push it higher in the short run. However, ultimately the price of $Gold should reflect the fundamentals. And we note further, gravity is stronger than all the speculative hedge funds collectively.

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The Great American Casino


Sunday, June 6, 2010

Investor Sentiment: The Sweet Spot

As we all know there is very little good news here or abroad, and with market volatility picking up, investors have a right to be worried. However, as we have seen time and again, the majority of investors are wrong much of the time. We are now entering the sweet spot where we shall see if they are wrong or right. If the majority of investors are right and if the market continues lower despite the bearish sentiment, then there is a strong possibility of deep and extended losses as buyers did not appear when they should have. From this perspective, little has been decided, and with the NASDAQ 100 and Russell 2000 still above their simple 40 week moving averages, it doesn't seem right to throw in the towel. I like my chances here.



This is the first bullish signal since March 8, 2009.


The "Smart Money" indicator is neutral.


Buyers were cautious and sellers weren't looking for huge pay days.


Currently, the value of the indicator is 47.56%. Values less than 50% are associated with market bottoms.

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Day to watch


Around wednesday 9 June 2010, I'm expecting a huge move rally or dip. If you are shorting at that time. Good Luck

World production of silver



Silver-producing countries.
In 2009, three countries stand silver producers: Peru, Mexico and China.
Since 2002, Peru is the largest producer of silver in the world. In 2009,
Peru produced 125.3 million ounces of silver, i.e 2 900 tonnes of silver. Silver production in Peru has almost doubled since 1998. Peru is the second largest producer of copper and zinc, the fourth in lead and fifth in gold. Four largest mines in Peru produce half silver of country. It primarily produces zinc, gold, copper, and even molybdenum. Silver production in Peru is an associated production. Its first place of silver producer is the result of the high level of the four other productions.
China is the second world's largest producer of silver with 96.4 million ounces of silver (3 000 tons). China is also the largest producer of zinc, lead, gold and the fourth largest producer of copper, its place was therefore surprising.
Mexico, after record years of 2005 to 2008, significantly decreases it saw a significant decline in its production of silver in 2009 with 80.3 million ounces of silver, a decrease of 22.8% from the peak year of 2008 ( 104 million ounces of silver). The third of the Mexican silver production comes from single large silver mine which is the second in world; it also produces lead and zinc.
Chile is the fourth largest silver producer in the world with 64.3 million ounces. There is a direct correlation between the growth of copper production in Chile and its silver production. Chile is by far the largest producer of copper, its copper production is 4 times higher than the second largest producer of copper.
Australia is the fifth largest silver producer with 57.8 million ounces of silver produced in 2009. The first silver mine in the world is Australian, it is a polymetallic mine: silver-lead-zinc. It produces 5% of world production of silver and 60% of Australian production.
Bolivia produced 43.7 million ounces of silver. Its production triple in 3 years after the opening of two new giant mines (gold, silver, zinc and silver).
Russia, the seventh largest producer of silver in the world, last year it produces 41.7 million ounces of silver. The first silver mines in the country produces over a third of national production and it is a mixed gold-silver mine.
USA is the eighth silver producers with 39.5 million ounces. In 1997 USA were the second with 69.1 million ounces of silver. First U.S. silver producer produces more than a quarter of silver production. It is also the second largest producer of zinc and the third of lead.
Poland is the ninth largest producer of silver with 38.5 million ounces of silver. 100% of It production comes from a single copper mine...
There are about fifty other countries that produce the silver in smaller quantities (Kazakhstan, Sweden, Morocco, Indonesia, Uzbekistan, Brazil, South Africa, Korea, Japan, Spain...).

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Can the Crisis Stop at Spain?



Click HERE FOR VIDEO

RSI remains bearish for SPY



RSI met resistance near 50 twice during the current decline. Momentum remains bearish as long as RSI is below 50.

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Saturday, June 5, 2010

What Will Happen to Gold Supply if Demand is Very High?

Investment demand for gold has never been so high and it is likely to rise still further. Normally when a commodity is in high demand supply is accelerated and holders of that commodity often take profits, thereby increasing supply. Economic history tells us the same, "rising prices and high demand should result in rising supply." When it comes to gold all rules have to be re-written. That's because gold is only part commodity

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Friday, June 4, 2010

Tuesday, June 1, 2010

Pierre Lassonde interview



http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2010/5/26_Pierre_Lassonde.html

Stocktiming Indicator



This tool won't solve all your timing needs, but it is very useful in confirming a "market weakening condition" that has a strong downside bias.

All you need to create this chart is the daily data feed for the NYSE New Highs, and then create an exponential moving average of 3.

Look for the supports ... draw your support lines ...and then watch for them to be broken to the downside.

Especially important is if the indicator was in positive territory and after breaking support, it falls into negative territory. * Negative territory is established by drawing a horizontal line at the 180 level.

http://www.stocktiming.com

Bubbles, bubbles everywhere

International Monetary Fund's Global Financial Stability Report published in April. It shows that global banks have nearly $5 trillion of debt maturing in the next 36 months. Can you see what this means?



The problem for the banks - and for sovereign governments - is that there borrowing needs exceed the capacity of global savers to fund. The alternatives are deleveraging for the private sector and debt monetisation for the public sector. In other words, the banks will have to reduce the amount of debt and new credit issued in the economy (which leads to lower real growth rates) and central banks will have to buy debt issued by governments who cannot fund their deficits in public bond markets.