Monday, August 29, 2011

How The Economy Quietly Entered A Recession On Friday, And Why The GDP Predicts A Sub-Zero Nonfarm Payroll Number

The YoY change in real GDP, which is now at 1.5%, is a slam dunk indicator of recession: "Since 1948, every time the four-quarter change has fallen below 2 percent, the economy has entered a recession.

Real GDP YoY:

And Real GDP YoY vs NFP:

And lastly, sealing the deal for the "recession" argument is the following data from John Lohman which finds that the collapse in real-time economic data over the past three months is the sharpest in history.


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Thursday, August 25, 2011

Charting The Biggest Structural Problem For US Banks, And What The Market Expects From Jackson Hole, Version N+1


What this chart demonstrates is that banks, whose liabilities (deposits) are collateralized with IOER-interest bearing reserves, will sooner or later be forced to transform these holdings into risky loan-based assets. The question is whether there is enough cashflow-worthy collateral to absorb this transformation of about $1.7 trillion in fungible money. It also means that endogenous risk in the banking system will spike if and when the Fed weans banks to pull away from the safety of the IOER window, and into the far riskier, and far better paying real world.

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Monday, August 22, 2011

Monday, August 15, 2011

Monday, August 1, 2011




Tokyo Electric Power Co., operator of Japan’s crippled Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear plant, said it detected the highest radiation to date at the site.

Geiger counters, used to detect radioactivity, registered more than 10 sieverts an hour, the highest reading the devices are able to record, Junichi Matsumoto, a general manager at the utility, said today. The measurements were taken at the base of the main ventilation stack for reactors No. 1 and No. 2.

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"This Whole NATO Operation Is Going Very Badly In Libya"

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