Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Are We Headed Into A Recess/Depress-ion? The Answer In 9 Simple Charts

1. US PMIs
2. Philly Fed and Chicago PMI
3. Euro-zone & China PMI
4. OECD Leading Indicator
5. ECRI Weekly Indicator
6. Initial Jobless Claims
7. Payrolls and Recessions
8. Velocity of M1 Money Stock
9. Consumer Confidence
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Monday, September 26, 2011

Trader on BBC says Eurozone Market will crash

Dallas Fed Misses Expectations as Hope Turns Negative For First Time Since April 2009

The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index joined a long and distinguished list of recently disappointing macro prints by missing expectations


Which combined with the Empire and Philly Fed prints indicates a rather worrisome estimate for ISM at 46.2.


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Marc Faber to Reuters

Sunday, September 25, 2011

Saturday, September 24, 2011

Sunday, September 18, 2011

Calendar

The ECRI Index Of Leading Economic Indicators Plunges Even Farther Into Negative Territory




A significant decline in the WLI has been a leading indicator for six of the seven recessions since the 1960s. It lagged one recession (1981-1982) by nine weeks. The WLI did turn negative 17 times when no recession followed, but 14 of those declines were only slightly negative (-0.1 to -2.4) and most of them reversed after relatively brief periods.

Three other negatives were deeper declines. The Crash of 1987 took the Index negative for 34 weeks with a trough of -6.8. The Financial Crisis of 1998, which included the collapse of Long Term Capital Management, took the Index negative for 23 weeks with a trough of -4.5.

The third significant negative came near the bottom of the bear market of 2000-2002, about nine months after the brief recession of 2001. At the time, the WLI seemed to be signaling a double-dip recession, but the economy and market accelerated in tandem in the spring of 2003, and a recession was avoided.

The question had been whether the WLI decline that began in Q4 of 2009 was a leading indicator of a recession. The published index has never dropped to the -11.0 level we saw in July 2010 without the onset of a recession. The deepest decline without a recession onset was in the Crash of 1987, when the index slipped to -6.8. The ECRI managing director correctly predicted that we would avoid a double dip. The eight quarters of positive GDP since the end of the last recession supports the ECRI stance.

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Thursday, September 15, 2011

The Complete And Uncut Chart Porn Collection

We are once again delighted to bring to our readers The Punch Line: the consumate compendium of economic chart porn available, put together by Abe Gulkowitz, this time titled "The Big Swerve" for obvious reasons.

TPL Sept 15 11

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Monday, September 12, 2011