Bad News for BP – Tropical Storm approaches Gulf of Mexico

A tropical storm approaching Gulf of Mexico forced BP managers to evacuate deep-sea engineers trying to permanently seal the gusher and to protect the blown-out well.

The National Hurricane Center warned that there is a great chance for the storm system over the Bahamas to become a tropical cyclone and would likely move westward into the Gulf of Mexico.

“We are having to watch the weather very, very carefully now and adjust our plans accordingly,” BP president Kent Wells tells reporters.

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Is Market Topping Again?

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Afghan War

NYSE Oscillator (NYMO)

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Calendar

Were The Stress Tests For Real? Volume Says Otherwise

A break above key support or resistance on low volume indicates that the move was not convincing and should send warning signs as a “fakeout”. This market is indicating that the moves higher are basically due to a lack of sellers and any further news items which may be negative will bring the bears back out.

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Whistleblowers vs Regulators

Vancouver symposium

•John Mauldin – Buy emerging markets, sell sovereign debt…but not now. Treasuries are going to go lower in the short term
•Andrew Lowenthal – John is 100% right: Rolling over US debt is going to be so much easier than what people think…it’s too early to short Treasuries
•Eric Kraus – Buy resource producers in places where people are afraid to invest. Short finance sectors of developed countries
•Barry Ritholtz – Short the euro, long stocks in 2016, when the next bull market begins
•Byron King – Sell the euro: It’s doomed, just a question of time. Buy crude oil. There’s just not enough of it. I’m long the Tea Party, too
•Doug Casey – I’m inclined to own a lot of gold, cattle and agricultural land…keep it simple. I would short the euro, yen and US stock market
•Gary Gibson – I own nothing. If I had anything, I would have dollars now, uranium later. Buy energy.
•Eric Fry – Short euro, long uranium
•Porter Stansberry – There are just too many good shorts. Short Treasuries, especially in US and Italy. Buy gold, silver, timber and super-high-quality blue chips when they yield 10% or more
•Chris Mayer – Short the state of California and Illinois. Long uranium and high-quality farmland.
•traderpick.blogspot.com - Long USD, Long uranium later, Short AUD and Short Gold when Dow go below 9100.

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Arch Crawford with Financial Sense

Click here for Podcast

Arch comes in at the 40 minute mark and talks for a half an hour.

Arch Crawford interview

Don't get fleeced - get rich

This rally is therefore regarded as presenting a final chance to get out, and is also viewed as an excellent shorting opportunity. The MINIMUM or rather first downside target is the early 2009 lows below 700, but this time it won’t come back up again, as governments around the world have used up all their options (no pun intended) and blown their credibility to boot.





Now here’s where you are asked to exert your grey matter a little. Look at these 2 charts, one then the other and ask yourself where you think the XAU index will be if the S&P500 drops to the bottom - or off the bottom of its chart THIS YEAR. Get my point? - it’s not likely to be up is it? The XAU index HAS NOT CONFIRMED GOLD’S BREAKOUT TO NEW HIGHS, NOR HAS SILVER - AND BOTH ARE CLOSE TO FAILING BENEATH MASSIVE RESISTANCE. Watch out for a heavy down day to confirm that the 2008 style crash has started.



The Baltic Dry Index has broken down from a top area and has been falling steeply for weeks, so that it has ALREADY DROPPED BY MORE THAN 50% FROM ITS MAY PEAK. What this means is that the second major downwave has already begun, it’s just that the stockmarket doesn’t yet realize it - and you sure don’t want to be around when it does. There’s trouble ahead, big trouble. Why does recent action in the Baltic Dry presage this? - because this index reflects international shipping prices of a range of dry bulk cargoes, and is thus an accurate monitor of the state of the world economy.

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Market Movers Event

Rust Discovered On Bank Of Russia Issued 999 Gold Coins

Here's a head scratcher: as everyone knows from elementary chemistry courses, gold is the most inert metal in the world - it does not rust, nor corrode. Yet this is precisely what Russian commercial precious metal trading company, International Reserve Payment System, discovered on thousands of (allegedly) 999 gold coins "St George" (pictured insert) issued by the Central Russian Bank. The serendipitous discovery occurred after various clients of the company had requested that their gold be stored not in a safe, but in a far more secure place: "buried under an oak tree." As the website of IRPS president German Sterligoff notes: once buried, "the coins began to oxidize under the influence of moisture." And hence the headscratcher: nowhere in history (that we know of) does 999, and even 925 gold, oxidize, rust, stain, spot or form patinas, under any conditions. Furthermore, as IRPS discovered, Sberbank of Russia released an internal memorandum ordering the purchase of the defective coins with the spotted appearance. Sterligoff concludes: "It should be noted that the weight and density of the rusty coins coincide with the characteristics of gold that would be expected after after conventional testing methods would reveal. We think that the experts will be interesting to determine the nature of this phenomenon." So just how "real" is 999 gold after all, either in Russia or anywhere else?

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VIX leads SPX.

We could see a retracement today or tomorrow.

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Investing in Uranium: A Glowing Recommendation

A large, offline mine is a very big deal in the uranium world, as nearly 60% of the world’s mined uranium comes from only ten mines. Cameco’s MacArthur River mine alone provides 15% of the world’s production. For comparison, the top ten mines in the gold sector produce only 19% of the world’s supply.

Politically, uranium production is also problematic. Let’s take a look at just a pair of snapshots from around the world. Consider them postcards from the frontier of the uranium market. (Even if you don’t care about uranium, this is an issue that affects many commodities, including oil.) First up, the blue men of the desert…

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Why This Isn't Like 1938-At Least Not Yet

That's worrisome because, as the nearby chart demonstrates, over the last year the stock market has followed a path eerily similar to 1937. First, a strong, rapid run to a recovery high—same pace, same magnitude. Then a correction—again, the same. Will we continue on the path that led the correction of 1937 into a collapse in 1938? This question would be nothing more than a technical curiosity for chartists if it weren't for alarmingly similar economic backdrops between the two periods.

In 1937 the economy was in a strong recovery from a severe crisis, and there was complacency that the worst was over—much like the exuberance about a "V-shaped' recovery this April. But after 1937 the economy relapsed into what historians call "the recession within the Depression," a downturn so severe that in any other context it would qualify as a depression itself.

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Day to watch

Day to watch for big move on stock market. I'm expecting more down move from late July 16 till early July 26. Could possible last until 4th August.

"Sell the Rally"

Baltic Dry Index still show no sign of slowing, so "Sell the Rally" is in position.

Web bot explain israeli mistaken attack on Iran

So my position has altered in that it is seeming more likely by the day that the [israeli mistake] is 'on' and soon. Many of the critical elements now in place are not able, from a military logistics view point, to be maintained for too long in place before their usefulness degrades below acceptable levels.....therefore, certain conclusions need to be drawn appropriately.

As you may note from the chart below, the period from July 11th through to the tipping point of November 8th through the 11th is both very short, and extremely 'toothy'....as may be expected of the time between the skirmish (the israeli mistaken attack on Iran), and the resultant global thermonuclear war.

Also note, we could be wrong about the 'whats' and 'whys' of the building tension and release tension points....there is always consistent hope for that as we get the details wrong repeatedly. However, the temporal marker of the ranking general in deep shit came from the same data set that produced the israeli mistake forecast. So......take it all as speculative, until it is not.

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The 480-Day Worth Watching

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Money Supply (M2)

The market has been swinging from one extreme to another, but has been following the average seasonal pattern quite closely all year and that pattern suggests the next week and a half will be down.

Expect the major averages to be lower on Friday July 16 than they were on Friday July 9.

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Dow theory

In accordance with Dow theory the primary trend is considered to be in force until it is reversed by a joint move of the averages above or below the previous secondary high or low point. My read on Dow theory is that the bullish primary trend change, which followed the March 2009 low, still remains intact, because we have not yet seen a joint close below a previous secondary low point. The decline into the June closing low carried the Industrials below their February secondary low point, but it is because the Transports have held above their February secondary low point that a primary trend change has not occurred.

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GVZ Show Bullish

As compare with GDM and GVZ, it's very possible a faults signal.

Gold coming down

Bradley turning point

Base on Bradley turning point and Solar Eclipse, I think a rally is coming near until early August.

Solar Eclipse on July 11, 2010

Headed for a Double-Dip?

Consecutive down days can make good profit

SPX has been down 5 days in a row, so what happened if you buy at close today and sell at close the next Tuesday?


Well, the results are impressive but there’s an issue (not bug) in the back test software. See chart below (red bars), it counts the 6/7/8 consecutive down days as 5 consecutive down days because they all fit for the condition I specified for the back test software. So basically the back test means you buy at today’s close and hold until the first green day, you always win since year 2000.

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FEMA Plans to Evacuate Gulf Residents to California

Interview with Mr. Arch Crawford

Click here for Interview with Mr. Arch Crawford

War With Iran?

Paul Craig Roberts on The Corbett Report

Will the Market break down today

If the market break down today and the bottom fish is at 9200 for Dow and 990 for S&P500.