Monday, January 30, 2012

Sunday, January 29, 2012

Tom DeMark on Bloomberg

Iran Set to Turn Off Oil Supply to Europe


The European Union embargo on Iranian oil will only come into effect in six months, but the leadership in Tehran wants to act first: Exports to Europe are set to be halted immediately. It is a move which could mean added difficulties for struggling economies in southern Europe.

It's a move which has tit-for-tat written all over it, but one which could nonetheless have a serious impact: The Iranian government wants to present a bill to parliament this weekend calling for an immediate halt to oil deliveries to Europe. The move, with most reports citing the Iranian news agency Mehr, has come about in response to the EU agreement to impose sanctions against Iran, which were announced earlier this week

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Monday, January 23, 2012

Tuesday, January 10, 2012

China Trade Surplus Unexpectedly Rises As Non-EU/US Imports Spike; Crude Imports Relentless






Quick glance at China's two primary trading partners: the US and EU does not reveal anything peculiar: both were either flat or saw just a modest drop in the trade surplus - good news for anyone concerned that the European slowdown would hit China's largest trading partner. And here is where the decoupling occurred, as the surplus soared in the "rest of the world" or the non-EU/US category. As can be seen below, December is traditionally a month when the surplus contracts and approaches the flatline. Yet this year, oddly enough, the December ROW surplus doubled from $5.8 billion to $11.4 billion. Just who is it, outside of the US and EU, that suddenly saw a pressing need for Chinese imports?

And yet all of the above is likely just minutae when one considers something far more important: Chinese Oil imports. As the chart below shows, sooner or later excess capacity within the OPEC system is going to disappear. And then it gets really interesting.




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