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Tuesday, November 29, 2011
Monday, November 28, 2011
Sunday, November 27, 2011
Thursday, November 24, 2011
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
EOCI index up ticked back above the 30 level
On a very positive note that EOCI index up ticked back above the 30 level to 32.24. This is very interesting because in the entire history of the index it has never dipped below 30 without the economy being in, or going into, recession - except once. In 1968-1970 the index slipped below the critical level of 30 and then recovered briefly above it. This occurred without a recession in tow. However, it quickly fell below it once again and the economy slipped into recession. It is my best guess that this may potentially be the case today.
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Monday, November 21, 2011
Sunday, November 20, 2011
Saturday, November 19, 2011
TED Spread Cardiogram
The TED spread is the difference between the interest rates on interbank loans and on short-term U.S. government debt (“T-bills”). TED is an acronym formed from T-Billand ED, the ticker symbol for the Eurodollar futures contract. Most people ignore this indicator day-to-day, because we all just assume the the heart beat of the banking market will keep beating on, but in 2008 everyone was watching it.
Basically the TED spread is the EKG for stress in the worldwide banking system, and right now it’s up over 221% in the last year. When it goes higher, that means banks are growing more & more short of breath to lend to each other. And if bankers can’t trust bankers, who can they trust? So, maybe it’s time to take note again.
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Basically the TED spread is the EKG for stress in the worldwide banking system, and right now it’s up over 221% in the last year. When it goes higher, that means banks are growing more & more short of breath to lend to each other. And if bankers can’t trust bankers, who can they trust? So, maybe it’s time to take note again.
FIND OUT MORE
Friday, November 18, 2011
Thursday, November 17, 2011
EFSF Spread Breaks 190bps
EFSF spreads broke 190bps for the first time - clearly signaling the market's perception of the AA/A as opposed to AAA/AA creditworthiness. French spreads traded wide of 196bps (record wides).
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Wednesday, November 16, 2011
Tuesday, November 15, 2011
Monday, November 14, 2011
Sunday, November 13, 2011
Wednesday, November 9, 2011
Tuesday, November 8, 2011
Monday, November 7, 2011
Sunday, November 6, 2011
ECRI Recession Watch
The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) posted -9.4 in its latest reading, data through October 28, off its interim low of -10.1 set over the previous two weeks. (Note: last week's original level of -10.0 was revised downward to -10.1.)
On September 30th, the ECRI publicly announced that the U.S. is tipping into a recession, a call the Institute had announced to its private clients on September 21st.
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On September 30th, the ECRI publicly announced that the U.S. is tipping into a recession, a call the Institute had announced to its private clients on September 21st.
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European Panic As Interbank Liquidity At Worst Level Ever
The liquidity in the market now from a European point of view, contrary to what broken indicators may show, is the worst it has ever been with nearly $1.6 trillion in liquidity removed from broad circulation and parked with either just the Fed or the ECB.
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Wednesday, November 2, 2011
Tuesday, November 1, 2011
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