The second indication we've already begun another recession: M3 money supply.

M3 is the broadest possible measure of money in the system including cash, savings accounts, money market funds, etc. The Federal Reserve stopped tracking M3 in 2006 because they say they no longer find it useful.

John Williams of Shadowstats.com, however, has stayed on top of it, easily collecting the data needed to make this prognostication:

“M3 rising to the upside does not necessarily signal and economic upturn," says Williams, explaining the lines on the graph above. "Yet whenever annual growth in M3 has turned negative, a recession always has followed, usually within six-nine months."

Real M3 generated a signal in December 2009 for a downturn. How much time has elapsed? Oh, about nine months.

“The current weakness," says John, "will eventually gain official recognition as the second down leg of a double-dip recession."

FIND OUT MORE