How The Economy Quietly Entered A Recession On Friday, And Why The GDP Predicts A Sub-Zero Nonfarm Payroll Number

The YoY change in real GDP, which is now at 1.5%, is a slam dunk indicator of recession: "Since 1948, every time the four-quarter change has fallen below 2 percent, the economy has entered a recession.

Real GDP YoY:

And Real GDP YoY vs NFP:

And lastly, sealing the deal for the "recession" argument is the following data from John Lohman which finds that the collapse in real-time economic data over the past three months is the sharpest in history.

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